اللغة الإنجليزية 
البرتغالية 
الفرنسية 
العربية 
Kenya’s 536-kilometer coastline is changing faster than most people realise. Rising seas, shifting shorelines, and booming coastal populations are stacking risk in ways that demand evidence-driven planning. A new study by Abigail Wambui, using geospatial modelling and Earth observation data, provides a clear picture of where the coast is most exposed and why the stakes keep rising.
The research applies a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI), a decision-support framework that combines physical characteristics of the coast with socioeconomic conditions to show which areas are most at risk. By integrating layers such as coastal slope, geomorphology, land use, shoreline change, sea level trends, wave energy, and population density, the study moves beyond single-factor assessments and offers a more realistic, multi-dimensional understanding of vulnerability. As Kenneth Mubea observes, “Digital Earth Africa is empowering researchers like Abigail to get more insights into how critical earth observation informs decision making and support development of coastal management plans, leaving no one behind.”
The results bring important clarity. Kenya’s Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) averages 42.38, which represents how naturally exposed the coastline is based on physical features like slope, shoreline behaviour, tidal range, and wave conditions. A higher PVI score means a coastline is more physically sensitive to erosion and sea-level rise, and in Kenya’s case the score indicates moderate exposure due to extensive low-lying terrain and active erosion zones.
On the human side, the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SoVI) comes in much higher at 71.02. SoVI measures the pressure placed on the coast by people, accounting for population density, settlement patterns, land use, and proximity of infrastructure to the shoreline. A score this high signals that social and economic assets along the coast are highly exposed, particularly in rapidly growing hubs such as Mombasa, Kilifi, and Lamu.
When combined, these two measures produce a CVI score of 50.97. CVI is the final composite indicator that categorises the overall vulnerability of each coastal segment. In this analysis, the score places Kenya’s shoreline in the medium-vulnerability zone, with several stretches trending toward high vulnerability where physical fragility and human pressure converge.
The study also incorporates a cultural heritage risk assessment, using spatial-join techniques to determine how close heritage sites are to the shoreline and to the vulnerability level of adjacent coastal segments. The resulting classification sorts sites into five levels of exposure, offering a practical roadmap for heritage conservation teams needing to prioritise monitoring, protection, or relocation.
Overall, Abigail’s work reinforces a critical truth: coastal vulnerability is not only about rising seas, it is about the interaction between the physical landscape and the human footprint. With a full, data-driven vulnerability picture now mapped, Kenya has the evidence it needs to guide coastal planning, strengthen resilience measures, and protect both its people and its heritage.
Reflecting on the work, Abigail Kagema notes, “Thank you for featuring my work and helping bring attention to Kenya’s evolving coastal risks. I’m grateful for the support and open data provided by Digital Earth Africa, which made this analysis possible. I hope these findings inform stronger coastal protection efforts and guide evidence-based planning for the communities that depend on our shoreline.”